PolyHedge

PolyHedge is an AI-powered platform that turns prediction markets into a form of insurance against real-world risks that traditional insurance cannot cover.

A user describes their worries in plain English, such as rising inflation or a specific election outcome, and the system interprets the natural language to extract the concrete, measurable events underlying that concern. It then uses semantic search to scan thousands of active prediction markets and surface the ones most relevant to the user's risk.

A fast first-pass filter rapidly discards irrelevant markets, after which a reasoning engine evaluates each remaining market for relevance and correlation direction, recognizing when an inverse outcome (such as betting against a rate cut) is actually the right hedge against the user's fear.

The system then groups these correlated markets into themed, "ETF-style" bundles, like a macroeconomic hedge versus a regulatory one, and presents a summary of exactly which aspects of the risk are covered. The result transforms a complex, intimidating prediction-market landscape into an accessible risk-management tool that lets anyone hedge against the events they are most worried about.